The Israeli armed forces commenced extensive domestic military exercises on Sunday, simulating responses to unexpected border breaches and ground incursions across its northern and central territories. These large-scale maneuvers involved multiple military divisions and air assets, reflecting the escalating tensions throughout the region.
Scheduled to last 48 hours, these drills coincided with an assessment from Israeli security expert Eilam, a former researcher for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. Eilam recalled the 1973 Yom Kippur War, during which Egypt and Syria successfully masked their preparations for a surprise attack by framing them as routine exercises. He cautioned that current regional escalations could inadvertently lead to what he termed a “dangerous miscalculation.”
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) specified that these significant maneuvers incorporated the 210th Division of the Northern Command, the West Bank Division, and the 98th and 96th divisions from the Central Command, operating in conjunction with the Israeli Air Force.
Positioned just before Israel's elections on October 27, the exercise aims to “maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area,” according to statements from the IDF.
On Friday, the IDF communicated that troops would practice “a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land,” integrating vital lessons derived from the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Eilam elaborated on the exercise's implicit messaging, stating, “It's aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative.”
Eilam further emphasized the scale of the operation, describing it as “a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders.”
Eilam also connected the timing to the upcoming elections, noting, “It's all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It's also a message to Iran and others: don't try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted.”
Regional Dynamics and Deterrence Signals
These Israeli drills followed a display of military strength by Tehran just days prior, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly launched approximately 30 ballistic missiles from two distinct weapon categories.
That live-fire demonstration underscored Iran's strike capabilities, prompting renewed concerns for commercial shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and leading the Israeli military to elevate its alert status, maintaining maximum readiness for a potential targeted strike against Iran.
During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir cautioned about the increasing potential for escalation. “Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased,” Zamir stated.
He added, “To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability.”
Eilam observed the reciprocal nature of these displays: “Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel.”
He clarified the immediate focus of the current Israeli drills: “This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel.”
Furthermore, Sunday’s Israeli exercise came after an October 19 mission where Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers traversed 800 miles through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, reaching Iran’s border.
Washington had been informed in advance of this maneuver, interpreting it as a non-kinetic show of force, particularly after a more extensive strike package had been postponed earlier in the month.
The Peril of Miscalculation
Despite these deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises inherently carry a “risk of miscalculation,” especially when significant troop movements could be misinterpreted as preparations for an actual offensive.
He drew a historical parallel: “During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention.”
Eilam specifically referenced the 1973 Yom Kippur War, where Egypt and Syria leveraged military exercises to mask a substantial troop buildup along Israel's borders.
Israeli intelligence largely dismissed these movements as routine drills, allowing the two Arab nations to achieve a strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front assault on Yom Kippur.
Eilam reiterated, “The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack.”
Eilam concluded by describing the current climate: “Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first,” adding that there is a chance of what is called “miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake.”
Eilam summarized the ongoing exchange: “It's all about sending messages to each other.”
Eilam noted the external factor influencing potential actions: “It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization.”
He ended with a summary of the current stance: “Right now, both sides are signaling: 'We are ready, don't mess with us, but we don't want to start a war right now.'”
